[possible bug] Random team selection ...
The last bunch or games I started with random team selection (I think 5 or 6) gave me council. I have 4 teams to choose from (not Shaolin, not TF2). Chances of this particular sequence of events occurring are (25%)^5 = 0.1% or (25%)^6 = 0.02%; i.e. with a large enough number of players starting 5 or 6 games with random team selection in a row, this will happen to SOMEONE at SOME POINT; so I might just have "won the lottery".
Hence this post: anybody else have the same issue?
Actually, no, the odds of N times team X in a row are (Probability(X))^N. What IS true is that the odds that I will get Council AGAIN next time I choose random are.... 25%! :)
Also, the odds of Tribe-Council-Council-Council-Council (in that order) = the odds of Council x5
This is with the assumption that there is no glitch, and that it is truly a new no-memory random pick. It's just that Council x5 has low odds of happening, which suggests there MIGHT be a glitch. And I don't want to start more games to check for myself because I have a few more than I can comfortably handle.
(PS: In other words, I still would have made this post if I had gotten several consecutive dark elves, tribe or dwarves games)
(PS2: the lack of other people responding they have seen the same appears to indicate that it is just a pocket of variance, and that I will get something other than Council at some point.)
I haven't noticed this. I do feel like I end up with Tribe more frequently when I select teams randomly. But I never assumed the "random" selection had a "memory" component. Just figured every time you picked randomly, the game "picked a team out of the hat" regardless of how many other games you've played as a given team or what your recent random selections had been.
Hmm, I still think your wrong, since for any 5 game stretch, you will be assigned a team in the first game, and the odds of getting the same team in the next four teams are 25%^4. As we agree, it doesnt matter that it was council -- you would have had the same reaction to any streak of five. The odds of getting the same team in 5 consecutive games if you have 4 teams is 1 in 236 (1/4 to the 4th power).
Also, you have to keep in mind that unless you have played only 5 games since the patch, you yourself have more than 1 five game stretch would could have given rise to this anomolous result. Figuring out what that does to your odds of seeing this phenomona is too complex to fuss with, but its worth noting that your personal odds of seeing this phenomona since the patch could be much better than 1 in 236.
Hmm, I still think your wrong, since for any 5 game stretch, you will be assigned a team in the first game, and the odds of getting the same team in the next four teams are 25%^4. As we agree, it doesnt matter that it was council -- you would have had the same reaction to any streak of five. The odds of getting the same team in 5 consecutive games if you have 4 teams is 1 in 236 (1/4 to the 4th power).
I am currently taking a statistics course and you are almost right, but idk why you make it be built on the first game and not count it in the probability?? This is the probability of getting 5 or 6 of the same team in a row. It simply would be (0.25^5 or 6) = 1/1024 or 1/4096. Yes it's unlikely but unless your next 5 random games are council as well then it is punnily enough just an Anomaly :p
Hmm, I still think your wrong, since for any 5 game stretch, you will be assigned a team in the first game, and the odds of getting the same team in the next four teams are 25%^4. As we agree, it doesnt matter that it was council -- you would have had the same reaction to any streak of five. The odds of getting the same team in 5 consecutive games if you have 4 teams is 1 in 236 (1/4 to the 4th power).
I am currently taking a statistics course and you are almost right, but idk why you make it be built on the first game and not count it in the probability?? This is the probability of getting 5 or 6 of the same team in a row. It simply would be (0.25^5 or 6) = 1/1024 or 1/4096. Yes it's unlikely but unless your next 5 random games are council as well then it is punnily enough just an Anomaly :p
Think of it this way. The probability of getting 5 of the same team in a row may be (0.25^5), BUT there are 4 ways to reach that result because there are 4 different teams. Or (0.25^5)*4 = (0.25^4). Same thing.
Anecdotally, I just started a game as random team, and it was Council.
hi
actually i dont think random is infact random
from what ive observed it incorperates the teams you are in your current games, i may be incorrect about this but for example i was going a long run avoiding council then it reach a point where i think every random game i made i was council.
anyway theres my two pence
No idea, but your odds calculation is off since you would have had a similar reaction if you had obtained 5 in a row of any of your teams. Put another way, the first random selection doesnt count, its the ones that come after that which build the odds.
Anything is possible, so many little things have gotten glitched with the latest update, but I wouldnt bet on this being a glitch.